Lack of the fifth bowler could cost India dear

The 2003 World Cup finally gets underway on Saturday with the opening ceremony at Cape Town. This after all the uncertainly that seems to have gripped the game ever since the ICC Champions Trophy last September. Unfortunately, that element of uncertainty still continues with New Zealand's reluctance to play in Kenya, and England's confusion over playing in Zimbabwe.

Despite all this, I don't think that there will be another World Cup, which will be as hyped as the current one. In fact, all the controversies leading up to this World Cup - be it the one over the player's contract or the morality behind playing in Zimbabwe - have only helped to sustain this unprecedented media hype. In hindsight, perhaps it is only a reflection of our times that such tangential things are made to sound more important than the real event - the game itself.

With such uncertainty surrounding this World Cup, it becomes extremely difficult to predict a front-runner who will go on to win the World Cup. Had this been a World Cup for Test Cricket, well, I wouldn't have thought twice before saying Australia. But when it comes to the ODI World Cup, I have serious doubts about whether Ricky Ponting has it in him to pull off what Steve Waugh would have definitely delivered as a captain.

As for hosts South Africa, their record of having choked on numerous vital occasions goes against them. No doubt they play brilliant cricket, but the South Africans are past masters in putting themselves under tremendous pressure even when the going is great. Add to that the pressure of expectations of being the host country and it is tough to be optimistic of their chances.

When it comes to India, my heart will understandably always beat for them. As always the key to their success will lie in their ability to convert the surplus potential energy to kinetic. Their batting is the most potent in world cricket if it starts firing. But therein lies the whole problem - 'if only India play well'.

The Achilles heel of Sourav Ganguly's men has always been their inability to play to a plan. Take the case of Sehwag for instance. There is no batsman in world cricket today who is as exhilarating as him; the fiery opener can win a match on his own with his batting. But the hit-or-miss element of his exuberant batting, and the woeful run of form of Ganguly, could expose India's batting line-up to some world-class fast bowling during the course of the World Cup.

As we all know, one-day cricket is more or less a batsman's game. This being the case, a team like India just can't plan to set a target or chase a total with their uncertain batting. If they are to win games against serious opponents in this World Cup, it would be thanks to the individual brilliance of a Sachin Tendulkar, Yuvraj Singh or Sehwag. The confusion in the Indian team when it comes to planning can be easily made out from the fact that they are willing to sacrifice a bowler to pack in seven batsmen. So much so for a team that has a famed batting line-up.

And it is the lack of that one bowler, which worries me the most. Apart from Zaheer Khan, I just can't see any other attacking bowler in the Indian line-up. Whether India will play Harbhajan Singh ahead of Anil Kumble also seems uncertain at the moment.

If you ask me, the absence of a fifth bowler surely is the destabilising factor that India will have to deal with. In the circumstances, I reckon someone like Sehwag will have to play a crucial role as an off-spinner and claim wickets in the middle overs.

A quality all-rounder would definitely have boosted India's prospects in this World Cup. But let us face the truth; India does not have an all-rounder who can score runs when it matters and also claim crucial wickets. The all-rounder is the pivotal man, one who contributes to a team's success when the going really gets tough. Look at someone like Brad Hogg who scored 70-odd runs when Australia were struggling against England in the VB Series final.

On rational assessment, it is none of the above teams but New Zealand whom I rate as having a very good chance of winning this World Cup. It is quite another matter if the Kiwis decide to shoot themselves in the foot by not playing in Kenya. But if New Zealand qualify to the Super Sixes, they have the best chance of going the distance and taking the World Cup home. And Chris Cairns could well be their man of the tournament.

It certainly is not a wild guess that I am making. In Stephen Fleming, New Zealand have the best captain in the competition. In my book, he ranks just below Steve Waugh, who is arguably the best captain in world cricket today.

As a team, New Zealand are super-efficient. Put in a thinking captain like Fleming, match-winners like Cairns and Nathan Astle, genuinely wicket-taking bowlers like Shane Bond, Daryl Tuffey, the best left-arm spinner in the world today, Daniel Vettori, that quintessential superman Chris Harris and you certainly have a team capable of winning the World Cup.

My mind, then, says New Zealand, while my heart says India will win the World Cup. That said, whoever wins the tournament will certainly be a worthy champion.

On a sad note, this World Cup will be the last one featuring Allan Donald, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Muttiah Muralitharan and others. But the beauty of the game of cricket is that worthy champions will emerge. Personally, I would advise you to keep an eye on this chap from West Indies - Marlon Samuels.